In a doctoral thesis, Ikle suggested that the proponents of airpower had overestimated the relationship between the intensity of aerial bombing and the density of a city’s surviving population.
“Ikle devised a simple formula to predict how overcrowded the houses of a bombed-out city might become.
If P1 = population of a city before destruction, P2 = the population of a city after destruction, H1 = the number of housing units before destruction, H2 = the number of housing units after destruction, and F = the number of fatalities, then ‘the fully compensating increase in housing density,’ cold be expressed as a mathematical equation:
(P1 – F) / H2 – P1 / H1 “ (Schlosser, 2013, p.120).
References
Fred Charles Ikle, a graduate of the University of Chicago and expert on bomb destruction, who wrote ‘The Social Impact of Bomb Destruction,’ published in 1958.
Schlosser, E. (2013) Command and Control: The Story of Nuclear Weapons and the Illusion of Safety. London: Penguin Book s Ltd.
Should the Iklé formula be P2-F instead of P1-F?
Hi John,
P1 – F is P2; so no probably not.
You can read the formula here: https://books.google.com.au/books?id=mpZVtGW_LOgC&pg=PT130&lpg=PT130&dq=ikle+formula&source=bl&ots=2jMDCThVOz&sig=PfaVJ-R1ell-i0QykgXGiy3M6B0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwib_Mev-5nOAhWIk5QKHaq1AN0Q6AEIKDAB#v=onepage&q=ikle%20formula&f=false (my copy of the book is in transition to Australia after moving from the UK).
Thank you for the clarification.