Research Paper Title

Explaining Trends in Scottish Coronary Heart Disease Mortality between 2000 and 2010 using IMPACT SEC Model: Retrospective Analysis using Routine Data.

Study Question

To what extent has the recent decline in coronary heart  disease (CHD) mortality in Scotland been driven by treatments or changes in cardiovascular risk factors, and have all socioeconomic groups benefited equally?

Summary Answer

CHD mortality fell substantially, particularly in affluent areas; improved treatments accounted for approximately 43% of the fall, and benefits were very equitably distributed.

What is Known and What This Paper Adds

CHD remains the largest cause of total and premature deaths in Scotland, generating strong and persistent socioeconomic inequalities. The single largest contribution to the 43% fall in CHD mortality between 2000 and 2010 came from population level falls in blood pressure, but increases in obesity and diabetes are already generating many additional deaths.

Reference

Hotchkiss, J.W., Davies, C.A., Dundas, R., Hawkins, N., Jhund, P.S., Scholes, S., Bajekal, M., O’Flaherty, M., Critchley, J., Leyland, A.H. & Capewell, S. (2014) Explaining Trends in Scottish Coronary Heart Disease Mortality between 2000 and 2010 using IMPACT SEC Model: Retrospective Analysis using Routine Data. British Medical Journal. 22 February 2014, Volume 348, pp.14.