Analyses from two historical and five contemporary US cohorts suggest that the risks for both sexes are now:
- About 25 times more likely than never smokers to die of lung cancer;
- Between 22 and 25 times more likely to die of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); and
- Nearly three times more likely to die of ischaemic heart disease.
A second cohort study linked smoking histories of around 202,000 US adults with mortality during seven years of follow-up to 2006. All cause mortality was three times higher for smokers than for similar adults who had never smoked (hazard ratio for women 3.0, 99% CI 2.7 to 3.3; hazard ratio for men 2.8, 2.4 to 3.1).
The authors estimate that smokers lose a whole decade of life expectancy and halve their chances of surviving from 25 to 79 years (38% v 70% for women and 26% v 61% for men).
In further analyses, smokers who stopped:
- Before the age of 34 years regained the whole 10 years;
- At 35-44 years of age gained nine years of life expectancy;
- At 45-54 years gained six years;
- At 55-65 gained four years.
Source: New England Journal of Medicine 2013;368:341-350 and 368:351-364.
- Among Female Smokers Risk Of Lung Cancer Death Has Risen Dramatically In Recent Decades (medicalnewstoday.com)